A weak area of low pressure associated with an Alberta clipper will pass well north of the Capital Region on Friday, but its associated warm front will spread some light snow and flurries across the area by afternoon. High temperatures will only moderate slightly into the upper 20's and any accumulation should be light, with less than an inch anticipated. The greatest chance for any accumulation will actually be north and west of the Capital Region.
On Saturday, expect things to dry out but it will be the calm before the storm. Sunny skies and a light southerly flow of air will help high temperatures warm into the mid 30's. A storm system will be organizing in the Midwest and be poised to head into our region to end the weekend.
The computer forecast models are still all over the place with the exact track of the low pressure center yet to be determined, but as of right now, the thinking is that the low headed into the Ohio Valley will transfer its energy to the coast and a new storm center will then move through New England. This scenario would bring a solid plowable (4-8 inches) snowfall to the northern and western parts of the region with rain to southern and eastern parts and a mix of rain, snow, and sleet in between (the Capital Region). Very little snow may actually accumulate in the Capital Region unless the transfer of energy to the coast occurs faster than expected, allowing cold air to be pulled southward on the back side.
As the low pulls away by Monday, an arctic blast of extremely cold air and winds will be ushered into the region and lake effect snows will commence in western and central parts of New York.
A northwesterly flow of air will keep temperatures from reaching 20 degrees on Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday as well. Lake effect snow will continue to pile up in the snow belts, on top of the several feet of snow they already saw this past week.
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Image credits: AccuWeather.com
Brent McGrady
Looking forward to the storm this weekend...like your interpretation of how things should unfold. Thanks!